My very first article on this blog was about How Can the World Test Championship Improve?

375 articles and four and a half years later, we are going back to our roots. Thanks to diplomat and cricket enthusiast—Michael Appleton to get me inspired and thinking on these lines again from this tweet:

To every 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇦🇺 🇮🇳 fan/journalist/former/current player complaining about the format of the WTC: I have a deal for you!

If you’re prepared to give up the five-match Test series that your three countries play, I can design a WTC in which everyone plays everyone the same amount!

— Michael Appleton (@michelappleton) December 9, 2024

That original article explored how to reduce the imbalance of the Big 3 (India, England, Australia) in WTC scheduling, but still keep the ‘marquee’ series like The Ashes or Border-Gavaskar Trophy. However, it was a bit too unrealistic.

Over the years, I proposed and an implemented a more robust and fair algorithm for the WTC points table and explored other resolutions to Test cricket like a two-tiered Test championship with relegation and promotion.

Later, I would research how much money it takes to host a Test match and realized that finances are the root of almost all problems in the world of cricket. In all sense of the phrase—It’s the economy, stupid.

Today, I will try to put all of these ideas together and form a combined thesis towards a World Test Championship (WTC) system that (1) can realistically work in today’s world, (2) is financially viable, (3) includes equidistribution of Tests for every team, (4) implements two Test windows, and (5) come up with a realistic value for a Test match fund.

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Part I: Solving the Equal Matches Per Team Problem

One of the major issues in the current iteration of the WTC is the imbalance of the number of Tests each team plays. This is due to the influence of the Big 3 as well as the high cost to host a Test.

Current World Test Championship Table

Here are the number of matches each team will play in the 2023-25 WTC cycle:

• 22 – England
• 19 – India, Australia
• 14 – New Zealand, Pakistan
• 13 – Sri Lanka, West Indies
• 12 – South Africa, Bangladesh

We can see that the Big 3 play 5-10 Tests more than each nation. This is mainly due to the ‘marquee’ series like Ashes (Aus-Eng), BGT (Aus-Ind), and Ind-Eng.

How can we keep the drama of the marquee series alive but ensure an equal footing for each team?

Solution: Sweet 17—One Match Sacrifice Required by The Big 3

To resolve this issue, we will introduce the two-tiered relegation promotion system.

Each tier will consist of six teams including Zimbabwe, Ireland, and Afghanistan (I mean, why give out Test status when you’re not going to have Afghanistan and Ireland play on a regular basis). We will show this by example with the current Top 6 rankings in the current WTC table.

• Tier 1: India, Australia, England, South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
• Tier 2: Pakistan, West Indies, Bangladesh, Ireland, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan

The Constraints

Once we had this framework, the next question was what is the ideal number of matches each team in Tier 1 can play so that (1) there are no two-Test series, (2) each of the six teams plays each other once, (3) there is an equal amount of home and away matches, (4) India-Australia-England get to keep their ‘marquee’ series, and (5) most importantly, each team plays the same number of games.

I treated this challenge as a Sudoku puzzle. And boy was this a tough challenge! (Photos of my scribbling with my earlier attempts are at the bottom of the article for your kind perusal).

20-matches? Too many. 16 matches? Not enough to satisfy all the constraints.

17? Ahh, there’s the goldilocks zone!

Here is the solution I came up with:

• Each team plays two 4-Test series and three 3-Test series, for a total of 17 matches each.
• The 17 Tests are going to be divided in 7-home, 7-away, and 3-neutral Tests, where each of the Big 3 get to host one neutral series.
• The 7-home and 7-away matches will consist of exactly one 4-Test series and one 3-Test series.
• Altogether, Tier 1 will consist of exactly 50 Tests.
• Top 2 teams will compete in a 3-Test final series at a neutral venue (taking the total to 53 Tests).

The crux? India-Australia and the Ashes have to sacrifice the 5-Test series. I tried adding a 5-4-3 solution (one 5-match series, one 4-match, and one three match series, but it would require NZ-SL to play 5 Tests or the Ashes to be reduced to 3 Tests).

Two 4-match series worked out just right for everybody.

Tier 1 WTC Schedule Breakdown

	IND	AUS	ENG	SA	NZ	SL
IND	X	4	4	3	3	3
AUS	4	X	4	3	3	3
ENG	4	4	X	3	3	3
SA	3	3	3	X	4	4
NZ	3	3	3	4	X	4
SL	3	3	3	4	4	X
Total	17	17	17	17	17	17

Legend

• Home, Away
• Neutral
  • Ind vs SL in Australia
  • Aus vs NZ in England
  • Eng vs SA in India

You can interpret the above table as follows: India hosts England (4 Tests) & New Zealand (3), play away tours to Australia (4 Tests) & South Africa (3), and finally play a 3-Test neutral series against Sri Lanka.

Tier 2 WTC Schedule Breakdown

• Each team plays two 3-Test series and three 2-Test series, for a total of 12 matches each.
• For this example, since Pakistan is in this tier, the UAE will be chosen as the neutral venue for all neutral matches.
• Tier 2 will consist of exactly 36 Tests.
• Top 2 teams will compete in a 3-Test final series at a neutral venue (taking the total to 39 Tests).

	PAK	WI	BAN	ZIM	IRE	AFG
PAK	X	3	3	2	2	2
WI	3	X	3	2	2	2
BAN	3	3	X	2	2	2
ZIM	2	2	2	X	3	3
IRE	2	2	2	3	X	3
AFG	2	2	2	3	3	X
Total	12	12	12	12	12	12

• Home, Away
• Neutral
  • Pak vs Afg in UAE
  • WI vs Ire in UAE
  • Ban vs Zim in UAE

At the end of the WTC cycle, the bottom two teams from Tier 1 will be relegated to Tier 2, while both finalists from Tier 2 will be promoted to Tier 1.

Is it Too Much Test Cricket?

No.

Including the final series for both tiers, there will be a total of 92 Test matches in two years.

The first three iterations of the WTC had 61, 70, and 70 matches respectively. 92 here includes 12 Tests each for Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Ireland and the two final series, which is pretty balanced overall.

The compromise for equal games for each team is that the Big 3 will play 3-5 Tests less than the usual, while the mid-tier teams will play 3-5 more Tests than usual.

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Part II: The Money Problem

In this model, we are asking South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand to host one 4-Test series in a two-year cycle, but do they have the money? Probably not (and that is why we are also having the neutral Tests hosted in India, England, Australia, or the UAE—countries that can afford it).

We had estimated last year that it takes a mammoth $350,000-$1.4 million to host a Test match and studied why teams like NZ & SA lose money while hosting a Test.

On the other of the spectrum, a series like Ashes can incur costs anywhere from $3-7 million. The cost depends on various factors such as technology, review system, support personnel, hotels, travel, security, etc. One quick example is Australian broadcasting using an 80-camera system for the BGT 2024-25 series.

Higher quality, but comes with higher costs.

Cost Estimation: So, How Much Money is Needed to Sustain a Fair WTC?

To estimate the cost of hosting the WTC, we will first presume that the Tests hosted by Big 3 as well as the two final series (3 Tests each) will be on the higher end of the hosting costs.

India, England, and Australia will each host 8 Teams (7 home + 1 neutral) for a total of 24 matches. The 6 Tests for the two final series will make it about 30 high-quality expensive Tests and 62 Tests on the lower end.

The 62 Tests will cost anywhere from $21.7 million-$86.8 million, while the 30 Tests will take about $70-210 million. Overall, a 92-Test WTC will cost somewhere between $91.7-296.8 million.

Where Will Get the Money From?

The ICC recently mentioned a possible $15 million Test match fund in the form of $10,000 minimum Test fee as well as a ‘touring fee’. That is a step in the right direction, but more targeted funding is needed.

In our WTC model, we are asking SA, SL, and NZ to host about 4 Tests more than they usually do and Afg, Zim, and Ireland to host 5 Tests each more than they usually do. That is about 27 extra Tests, which totals to $9.45 million-$37.8 million.

The ICC had a total surplus of $912 million as of December 2022 and have an estimated $200-$325 million profits in each of the last couple of years. Subsidizing the World Test Championship (WTC) with about 5-15% of their annual profits could solve the money problem.

And if you really think about it, in the IPL auction 2025,

Rishabh Pant ($3.21 million) + Shreyas Iyer ($3.18) + Venkatesh Iyer ($2.83) + Arshdeep Singh ($2.14) + Yuzvendra Chahal ($2.14) + Jos Buttler ($1.88) + KL Rahul ($1.67) ~ $17.5 million.

If $17.5 million can be used to fund seven cricketers in a tournament that lasts less than 60 days, then surely $17.5 million could be found from somewhere (ICC + IPL + BCCI + sponsors) to fund six countries and Test cricket so it exists for the next 60 years.

The money in cricket exists. Just needs to be redistributed properly so that all interested parties are happy.

Also Read: Technology in Cricket: Economics & Cost of the Review System, Top 12 Richest Cricket Boards (RANKED 2023)

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Part III: The Scheduling Headache

One of our solutions for problems cricket need to fix in the next decade was not one, but two Test-match windows to accommodate the different seasons in the different hemispheres.

Note, from the current rankings, Tier 1 countries would include Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand. All of these 3 countries are located in the southern hemisphere and hence, will host all their home Tests in the November-January window, including the coveted Boxing Day Test.

West Indies, England, and Ireland will host both their home test series between the June-August window.

Meanwhile, subcontinental nations (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, UAE) can be more flexible and host one home series in each window.

Solution: Two 2-Hemisphere Test Match Windows

Here is how a potential two year cycle could look with the two separate windows without overcrowding the international calendar. We try to schedule Test cricket during peak summer times in each hemisphere to gain the most attention.

Test Match Window 1 Matches (November – January)

Tier 1

• India in Australia (4 Tests), South Africa in Australia (3 Tests), India vs Sri Lanka in Australia (3 Tests)
• Sri Lanka in South Africa (4 Tests), India in South Africa (3 Tests)
• South Africa in New Zealand (4 Tests), England in New Zealand (3 Tests)
• England in India (4 Tests), England vs South Africa in India (3 Tests)
• Australia in Sri Lanka (3 Tests)

Tier 2

• Bangladesh in Pakistan (3 Tests)
• Afghanistan in Zimbabwe (3 Tests), Pakistan in Zimbabwe (2 Tests)
• West Indies in Bangladesh (3 Tests)
• Ireland in Afghanistan* (3 Tests)
• West Indies vs Ireland in UAE (2 Tests), Bangladesh vs Zimbabwe in UAE (2 Tests)

Test Match Window 2 Matches (June – August)

Tier 1

• Australia in England (4 Tests), Sri Lanka in England (3 Tests), Australia vs New Zealand in England (3 Tests)
• New Zealand in India (3 Tests)
• New Zealand in Sri Lanka (4 Tests)

Tier 2

• Zimbabwe in Ireland (3 Tests), Bangladesh in Ireland (2 Tests)
• Pakistan in West Indies (3 Tests), Zimbabwe in West Indies (2 Tests)
• Ireland in Pakistan (2 Tests)
• Afganistan in Bangladesh (2 Tests)
• West Indies in Afghanistan (2 Tests)
• Pakistan vs Afghanistan in UAE (2 Tests)

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Bonus: Will West Indies Never Play India or Australia Again in this Model?

I know what you might be thinking.

If India, Australia, or England never relegate and West Indies never get promoted…are the days of the mighty West Indies versus the Australians and Indians over? 60 years of legacy down the drain?

Not quite. We have an addendum for this scenario as well.

One Optional Friendly Series Between the Two Tiers

If both teams agree (and there is space in the international calendar), an optional 1 to 3-match friendly Test series can be played between a country of the first and second tier. In our example, we may have:

• India vs Afghanistan
• Australia vs Zimbabwe (This is never going to happen, is it?)
• Australia vs Pakistan
• England vs Ireland
• South Africa vs Zimbabwe
• New Zealand vs West Indies
• Sri Lanka vs Bangladesh

This can serve as (1) a practice tour (India playing Zimbabwe on way to their South Africa series), (2) a promotional event (India-Pakistan one-off Test in UAE), or (3) an actual friendly series to encourage lower-ranked countries to stay serious about Test cricket.

Final Thoughts

Is it the perfect plan?

No. In fact, there is never such a thing as a ‘perfect plan.’

But we can continue to strive for a more perfect system, can’t we?

At least it is good to see that World Test Championship (WTC) is taking flight. 4 years ago, not many took this as a serious competition or offered solutions. Now there is plenty of debate, which is good to see.

In 2020, I was quixotic with my outlook on cricket. Thought anything was possible.

In 2021, I was hopeless, doubting the system at every stage.

By the time we reached 2024, I became practical. And as we approach 2025, I have become a little more realistic.

Hopefully, this solution is actually realistic for the ICC and others in charge of cricket to consider.

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Thank you all for reading! Comment below (or on social media about your thoughts and suggestions).

PS: Here is some bonus work on trying to find the ideal number of matches each team should play.

© Copyright @Nitesh Mathur and Broken Cricket Dreams, LLC 2023. Originally published on 12/11/2024. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Broken Cricket Dreams with appropriate and specific direction to the original content (i.e. linked to the exact post/article).